Available online at doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.07.017.
Cuenot, François, Lewis Fulton, John Staub (2012) The Prospect for Modal Shifts in Passenger Transport Worldwide and Impacts on Energy Use and CO2. Energy Policy 41 (February 2012), 98 - 106
Travel statistics for most countries are subject to numerous uncertainties. But as presented in this paper, the IEA has developed a sufficient database to estimate passenger travel by mode for major countries and regions around the world, and produce consistent travel and energy use estimates, perhaps the first of their kind. For example, we estimate that in 2005 total global passenger travel using motorised modes was about 40 trillion kilometres, or about 6000 per person. The IEA has also developed a set of travel projections to 2050, including a Baseline and a “Modal Shift” scenario. This paper provides the result of this analysis and estimates the potential impacts on CO2 from a 25% reduction in car and air travel by 2050 relative to the Baseline in that year. The modelling effort and policy analysis used to support the findings are also described.
Keywords: transport, mode shift modeling, CO2 emissions