Fulton, Lewis and Marshall Miller (2015) STEPS-NCST White Paper: Strategies for Transitioning to Low-Carbon Emission Trucks in the United States. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-15-11
This paper reviews estimates of truck CO2e reduction potential and costs, and develops new scenarios to achieve an “80-in- 50” target. These scenarios indicate that a combination of strong uptake of zero-emission trucks and advanced biofuels will likely be needed to hit such a target, but even with this combination, meeting the target will be very challenging.
The costs of deploying ZEVs and advanced biofuels to reduce truck GHG emissions may be substantial in the near term but should decline over time, relative to a baseline scenario.The number of ZEV trucks (and the sales trajectory) that could be needed by 2030 suggests that policies targeting the sales of ZEVs may be needed as a complement to fuel economy standards. Similarly, policies may be needed to ensure that sustainable, low-carbon hydrogen and diesel-replacement biofuels become available in large volumes in the coming decades.