Exploring the Impact of the Federal Tax Credit on the Plug-in Vehicle Market
Available online at: TRB
Tal, Gil and Michael A. Nicholas (2016) Exploring the Impact of the Federal Tax Credit on the Plug-in Vehicle Market. Transportation Research Board
The authors assess the effect of the Federal Plug-In Electric Drive Vehicle Credit on plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the US using an innovative ex post stated preference survey of more than 2,882 plug in vehicle owners in 11 states. This study attributes more than 30% of the PEV sales to the federal tax credit with higher impact of up to 49% for the Nissan LEAF. The incentive shifts buyers from internal combustion engine vehicles to plug-in vehicles and advances the purchase timing of new vehicles by a year or more. The authors explore the impact of the incentive on different buyers by socio-demographic and vehicle choice characteristics and explore the impact of the incentive using three performance measures including number of vehicles sold, kWh of capacity sold, and eVMT per year. The results of this paper are expected to add to the discussion of the impact of monetary incentives on the alternative fuel vehicle market and to present potential options for improving the performance of monetary incentives in the PEV market.