Fulton, Lewis, Gil Tal, Thomas S. Turrentine (2016) Can We Achieve 100 Million Plug-in Cars by 2030?. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-16-07
Co-published with Global Fuel Economy Initiative, globalfueleconomy.org
This paper explores recent trends in the market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in selected countries around the world, and the implications of this for a potential transition to a fairly dominant PEV market presence within the next 15 years. A useful context is provided by the Paris Declaration on Electro-mobility (UNFCCC, 2015), which calls for 400 million PEVs on the world’s roads by 2030, of which at least 100 million are expected to be passenger light-duty vehicles (automobiles, sport utility vehicles/SUVs, vans and passenger light trucks). Today there are about one and a quarter million PEVs (IEA, 2016), comprised of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), on the world’s roads with the vast majority in the United States, Europe, Japan and China. Thus the Paris Declaration represents a call for nearly a 100 fold increase in these numbers over the coming 15 year period.