Rodier, Caroline J. (2000) Uncertainty in Travel and Emissions Models: A Case Study in the Sacramento Region. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-00-19
The Sacramento region will be used as the case study. This region is particularly interesting because it is an air quality nonattainment region and has a state-of-the-practice travel demand model.
Three areas of uncertainty in the region's travel and emission models will be examined: socioeconomic projections, the land use and transportation interaction, and induced travel. Methods of uncertainty analysis will be applied to the Sacramento region's travel and emission models to set confidence intervals on results and to determine whether the rank ordering of policy scenarios is altered when the effect of uncertainty is taken into account.