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Is Travel Demand Insatiable? A Study of Changes in Structural Relationships Underlying Travel

UCD-ITS-RP-05-33

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Suggested Citation:
Kitamura, Ryuichi and Yusak O. Susilo (2005) Is Travel Demand Insatiable? A Study of Changes in Structural Relationships Underlying Travel. Transportmetrica 1 (1), 23 - 45

Stability in travel over time is examined in this study, and the source of observed instability is decomposed into: change in socio-demographic and other contributing factors, and change in structural relationships underlying travel. As a tool for this analysis, simultaneous equations model systems are developed to describe urban residents' activity-travel patterns. The models are estimated using repeated cross-sectional data from the Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe metropolitan area of Japan, collected in 1980, 1990 and 2000. The results of statistical analysis indicate that the structural relationships are instable, that changes in non-workers' travel patterns are largely due to the instability in the structural relations while changes in demographic and socio-economic factors play relatively minor roles, and that urban residents' travel has the tendency to expand over time.