Abstract:California’s “80in50” target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050 is based on climate science rather than technical feasibility of mitigation. As such, it raises four fundamental questions: is this magnitude of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions possible, what energy system transitions over the next 40 years are necessary, can intermediate policy goals be met on the pathway toward 2050, and does the path of transition matter for the objective of climate change mitigation? Scenarios for meeting the 80in50 goal in the transportation sector are modelled. Specifically, earlier work defining low carbon transport scenarios for the year 2050 is refined by incorporating new information about biofuel supply. Then transition paths for meeting 80in50 scenarios are modelled for the light-duty vehicle sub-sector, with important implications for the timing of action, rate of change, and cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. One aspect of these transitions – development in the California wind industry to supply low-carbon electricity for plug-in electric vehicles – is examined in detail. In general, the range of feasible scenarios for meeting the 80in50 target is narrow enough that several common themes are apparent: electrification of light-duty vehicles must occur; continued improvements in vehicle efficiency must be applied to improving fuel economy; and energy carriers must de-carbonize to less than half of the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel. Reaching the 80in50 goal will require broad success in travel demand reduction, fuel economy improvements and low-carbon fuel supply, since there is little opportunity to increase emission reductions in one area if we experience failure in another. Although six scenarios for meeting the 80in50 target are defined, only one also meets the intermediate target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020. Furthermore, the transition path taken to reach any one of these scenarios can differ in cumulative emissions by more than 25 percent. Since cumulative emissions are the salient factor for climate change mitigation and the likelihood of success is an important consideration, initiating action immediately to begin the transitions indicated for achieving the 80in50 goal is found to be prudent.