Abstract:Fuel carbon intensity standards have emerged as an important policy in jurisdictions looking to target transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for reduction. A carbon intensity standard rates transportation fuels based on analysis of lifecycle GHG emissions, and uses a system of deficits and tradable, bankable credits to reward increased use of fuels with lower carbon intensity ratings while disincentivizing use of fuels with higher carbon intensity ratings such as conventional fossil fuels. Jurisdictions with carbon intensity standards now in effect include California, Oregon, and British Columbia, all requiring 10% reductions in carbon intensity of the transport fuel pool over a 10-year period. The states and province have committed to grow demand for low carbon fuels in the region as part of collaboration on climate change policies. Canada is developing a carbon intensity standard with broader coverage, for fuels used in transport, industry, and buildings. This study shows a changing fuel mix in affected jurisdictions under the policy in terms of shifting contribution of transportation energy from alternative fuels and trends in shares of particular fuel pathways. It contrasts program designs across the jurisdictions with the policy, highlights the opportunities and challenges these pose for the alternative fuel market, and discusses the impact of having multiple policies alongside federal renewable fuel standards and sometimes local carbon pricing regimes. The results show how the market has responded thus far to a policy that incentivizes carbon saving anywhere along the supply chain at lowest cost, in ways that diverged from a priori policy expectations. Lessons for the policies moving forward are discussed.