Abstract:The development of new forms of fuel technology in the auto industry has largely been as a result of regulatory moves towards reducing vehicle emissions and extending fuel economy. These initiatives have not proceeded with uniform success. Some regulations have been readily fulfilled whilst others receive much criticism and resistance from the automotive and oil industries. Essentially low emission vehicles represent an incremental development of established technologies and so are readily accepted by manufacturers, whilst the transition to zero emission vehicles demands technologies outside the boundaries of traditional automotive firms and has met with more resistance. There remains little doubt that the driving factor for AFV technology is lead by air quality issues and that the economic arguments for AFVs are unlikely ever to outweigh those for oil based fuels. This can be seen in comparing the advances in the US to Europe where there has been little environmental pressure brought to drive the investment of resources in cleaner transportation.

This paper describes the status of the various competing technologies and explores whether they will be able to meet the demands of both the regulators and consumers and also tries to explore whether they can be commercially viable. The assessment is much more complex than merely calculating the emissions of different fuels, as it emerges that the use of the vehicle, driving cycle, make up of existing fleets and localised differences in infrastructure must all be considered before the emission effects of each fuel can be assessed. Then it is time to consider the costs of each option, and that calculation is also highly complex, case specific and even more shrouded in mis-information, guess work and culpability. One thing which is clear is the need for a renewed focus on long-term solutions to the problems of pollution and sustainability in transportation. Whilst the ground work for such a move towards vehicles powered by hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources is being laid down, there is a lack of focus and urgency. The main driving force for the advances in AFVs has been from air-quality concerns. There is a danger that the advances in emissions control seen from conventional fuel vehicles will remove that driving force and the goals of sustainability and further improving pollution will be lost.

The situation is more exasperated in the UK and Europe, where the lobby for improved emissions performance has been largely over shadowed by concerns over congestion. There is much to be done here to gain the level of benefits seen in the US, but again the focus and drive needs to be promoted more strongly to occupy the public's imagination.

The next step of this work should continue to analyse the effect of emerging technologies on the structure and practices of the car industry. However, there needs to be great care taken in selecting the technologies and scenarios analysed.