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Application of AMOS, an Activity-Based TCM Evaluation Tool to the Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Area



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Most tools currently available for passenger travel demand forecasting and policy analysis are based on the trip-based, four-step procedure. The procedure was developed in the 1950's and 1960's during the post-war expansion period, when urban population was growing rapidly, motorization was progressing, and suburban sprawling was starting. The emphasis in transportation planning at that time was infrastructure development. The issue at hand was where to build new freeways and how many lanes were needed. In such planning contexts coarse forecasting procedures sufficed.

Planning emphasis has changed substantially since then. In the 1970's Transportation Systems Management (TSM) was promoted, and Transportation Demand Management (TDM) was proposed in the 1980's. Currently the transportation planning community embraces more inclusive Transportation Control Measures (TCM's). The measures being considered are extensive and sophisticated. They are fine-tuned to target specific traveler segments. The trip-based four-step procedure, developed to serve the planning needs of decades ago, is not well suited to address these new transportation measures.

The Activity-Mobility Simulator (AMOS) was proposed as a tool, primarily for short-term transportation policy analysis, which is capable of better addressing current transportation planning issues. It is an activity-based micro-simulator of daily travel which focuses on adaptation behavior exhibited by urban residents when faced with changes in their travel environment. Its development embodies the following paradigm shifts: from utility maximization to satisficing; from deterministic demand functions to stochastic micro-simulation; and from static, cross-sectional models to dynamic models of adaptation.

At the time when the concept of AMOS was presented at the 1993 Summer Annual Meeting, it was still in a conceptual stage of development. Now an AMOS prototype has been developed and implemented in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, in the context of predicting traveler response to potential TDM measures.