Vaughn, Kenneth M., Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty, Paul P. Jovanis, Ryuichi Kitamura (1993) Analysis of Sequential Route Choice Under ATIS. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Presentation Series UCD-ITS-RP-93-12
An experiment to collect sequential route choice data under the influence of an Advanced Traveller Information System (ATIS) was performed using a PC-based interactive simulation. The experiment collected information on drivers' pre-trip route choice behavior at three levels of information accuracy, 60 percent, 75 percent and 90 percent. An analysis of variance was performed on the data to investigate the interrelationships among the different variables in an attempt to develop an understanding of what factors significantly influence route choice behavior and learning. An attempt was made to model sequential route choice behavior using a binary logit model formulation with mixed results. It was assumed that drivers update their knowledge of the system based on their previous experiences and therefore an information updating function was specified and incorporated into the model. The results indicate that drivers can rapidly identify the accuracy level of information being provided and that they adjust their behavior accordingly. There is also evidence which indicates an accuracy threshold level does exist below which drivers will not follow advice and above which drivers readily follow advice. It was found that male subjects agreed with advice more often than females, that less experienced drivers agreed more often than experienced drivers, and that a "freeway bias" exists with drivers much more willing to follow advice to take a freeway route. The model of route choice behavior had a prediction rate which was 79 percent accurate but also indicated that previous experiences had little effect on current route choices. This may be the result of a mis-specified updating function indicating further research is required to identify these learning relationships.