Abstract:Market-potential studies based on household travel behavior and consumer preferences show that electric vehicles may capture a share of the household motor vehicle market. However, most studies have ignored the implications of home refueling requirements on the market potential of electric vehicles. Using data from the 1985 American Housing Survey, the authors estimate the number of households that constitute the potential near-term private market for battery-powered electric vehicles. This estimate is based on housing characteristics and general vehicle usage patterns that are conducive, and probably necessary, to owning an electric vehicle. Foremost among these is the ability to recharge the vehicle at home. From these criteria the authors estimate that the potential private market for current-technology electric vehicles is approximately 28 million households—28% of the 1985 housing stock. Sensitivity analyses of household income and daily commute distances suggest that purchase price may have a greater impact on the marketability of electric vehicles than driving range.