Suggested Citation:
Morrison, Geoffrey M. and Thomas S. Stephens (2011) The U.S. Transportation Sector in the Year 2030: Results of a Two-Part Delphi Survey. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-11-11

A two-part Delphi Survey was given to transportation experts attending the Asilomar Conference on Transportation and Energy in August, 2011. The survey asked respondents about trends in the U.S. transportation sector in 2030. Topics included: alternative vehicles, high speed rail construction, rail freight transportation, average vehicle miles traveled, truck versus passenger car shares, vehicle fuel economy, and biofuels in different modes.

The survey consisted of two rounds -- both asked the same set of seven questions. In the first round, respondents were given a short introductory paragraph about the topic and asked to use their own judgment in their responses. In the second round, the respondents were asked the same questions, but were also given results from the first round as guidance. The survey was sponsored by Argonne National Lab (ANL), the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and implemented by University of California at Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies. The survey was part of the larger Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project run by the Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.