Publication Detail

New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

UCD-ITS-RP-13-59

Reprint

Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)

Available online at: DOI: 10.3141/2385-08

Suggested Citation:
Bremson, Joel, Alan Meier, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, Joan M. Ogden (2013) New Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Transitions to Alternative Fuels and Vehicles. Transportation Research Record 2385, 61 - 69

A large-scale transition to alternative fuels and vehicles is challenging. New modeling approaches are necessary to supplement existing models, such as MARKAL. One promising approach is simulation gaming. Simulation gaming has been used extensively in many fields, most conspicuously in military applications, to provide insights into the dynamics of uncertain processes. A large-scale game to simulate transitions to alternative fuels and vehicles was developed to explore the potential of this approach. Preliminary results of the game play suggest a possible counterintuitive dynamic: high energy prices can discourage the wide-scale adoption of alternative fuel vehicles because increased fuel costs reduce consumers' ability to pay for more costly alternative vehicle technologies.