Publication Detail

Coping with Technology Uncertainty in Transportation Fuel Portfolio Design

UCD-ITS-RP-14-57

Reprint

Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)

Suggested Citation:
Chen, Yuche and Yueyue Fan (2014) Coping with Technology Uncertainty in Transportation Fuel Portfolio Design. Transportation Research Part D 32, 354 - 361

In this paper, we present a stochastic programming model to cope with uncertainty brought by cellulosic ethanol technology evolvement in transportation fuel portfolio design problems. The model takes into account a range of possible technology evolvement scenarios, and identifies a solution to the energy portfolio, together with the corresponding infrastructure needs, that complies with existing environmental requirements and is cost-effective, reliable, and adaptable to future technology changes. Using a California case study, we demonstrate that the proposed stochastic model produces a more reliable solution than its deterministic counterparts.

Keywords: Sustainable transportation energy, portfolio design, stochastic programming, technology evolvement