Publication Detail

Air Quality Trade-Offs of a Rapid Expansion of Personal Electric Vehicles in China

UCD-ITS-RP-21-71

Journal Article

China Center for Energy and Transportation

Suggested Citation:
Chossiere, Guillaume, Sebastian Eastham, Alan Jenn, Florian Allroggen, Steven Barrett (2021) Air Quality Trade-Offs of a Rapid Expansion of Personal Electric Vehicles in China. Research Sqaure

In China, replacing gasoline cars with electric vehicles (EVs) is at the center of a strategy to reduce air pollution and CO2 emissions from transportation. Previous estimates of the benefits of vehicle electrification quantified the impact of EV use on on-road and power generation emissions only, thereby neglecting gasoline production. This study presents the first “use-cycle” analysis of EVs in China, including changes in emissions from transportation, power generation, and oil refineries. We use the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry transport model to quantify how each sector contributes to the net impacts of EV use on air pollution (PM2.5 and ozone) in China. We find that the projected growth in EV usage by the end of 2020 results in ~1,900 (95% CI: 1,600–2,200) avoided premature mortalities annually and a 2.4 Mton decrease in CO2 emissions. 70% of the total reduction in mortality is due to avoided refinery emissions. As refinery emissions become more tightly regulated, our work implies that the power generation sector must also become cleaner for EVs to remain beneficial.

Key words: Air Pollution, CO2 Emissions, Gasoline Production, Use-cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model, Premature Mortalities, Power Generation Sector