Abstract:To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, developed nations are increasingly adopting electrification for the lightduty (LDV) sector. This shift is both a challenge and an opportunity for vehicle producers worldwide. Estimating the implications of rising demand requires understanding the current global LDV supply and the effect of international goals. To help design policies facilitating the EV transition, we develop the MOdel for iNternational Ev Trade (MONET) using data from 2013-2021.We then use it to perform scenario analyses of future demand changes focusing on the Mexican auto industry as a major supplier to the North American market. We find that Mexico's light-duty vehicle LDV market will remain relatively stable in size, with a maximum estimated growth of 33% from 3.8 million in 2019. However, the EV market is expected to expand significantly, representing between one third to 45% of all LDV production required by 2035.