Abstract:The present report is the Final Report of the project "Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transport Sector 2000-2020: Case Study for Chile", commissioned by the Institute of Transportation Studies of the University of California, Davis, with financing from the Pew Center. Chile has been chosen for comparison to other three countries, South Africa, India (Delhi) and China (Shanghai). Most important among considerations is that Chile has pursued a range of market oriented economic policies in the past three decades, experienced rapid economic growth and subsequent expansion of automobile use. Chile was also chosen as representing in a limited way South America and smaller developing economies.

As with the other nations, the objective here is to examine Chile's current greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the expected evolution of these emissions during the next twenty years. Both urban and interurban transport are considered. The general methodology applied is based on the development of plausible scenarios for future developments of the system. Following GEO guidelines, the first activity has been to assess the condition of human and environmental systems, and the current array of factors driving the system forward. Several important driving forces are identified including economic development, urbanization processes, environmental stress and technological change. Particular attention is given to the growth of automobile use. Additionally the set of current policies that affect emissions are examined extensively together with the expected trends for both environmental and transport variables. Based on this, possible outcomes or variants have been identified and evaluated in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. A qualitative, narrative approach is followed together with a quantitative, systematic analysis.

The specific methodology applied considers the identification of the main drivers for both urban and interurban transport. Then, a base or reference scenario is developed that establishes the evolution of the main variables in a business as usual world, up to the year 2020. It is a market driven future where significant policy initiatives on the environment or transport are absent. Based on deviations from this expected future, alternative scenarios have been developed, that consider optional paths that are more benign from a greenhouse gas emission perspective. These scenarios, however, must be plausible, that is based on policies that have a reasonable probability of being applied. To determine these scenarios, interviews with the relevant policy actors were undertaken between November 1999 and March 2000. The list of people interviewed is presented in appendix 3. And, though 20 years may seem like a long time, it is not long enough to assume significant technological changes or shifts in current trends in this system.

This report has been divided into six chapters. Chapter one presents Chile's economic development in the last twenty years, together with the environmental policies followed. The change in the growth pattern in the period is clear, allowing for an optimistic evolution of most of the relevant economic variables. Similarly, environmental deterioration in the period, and a significant institutional response, are also evident in the period. Chapter two presents a detailed discussion of the evolution of urban transport in Chile, and the ensuing environmental impacts. In particular, Santiago's increasing air pollution and congestion problems are examined, together with the policies applied to reduce them. The main driving forces for the next twenty years are identified and discussed. Chapter three presents Chile's interurban transport, including passenger and freight, and also a discussion on how the country is using market forces to supply the required transport infrastructure. The main drivers and trends are also identified. Chapter four develops the reference scenario, presenting the main greenhouse gas emissions for 1997, and the 2000 to 2020 period. Distinctions are made between urban and interurban transport, freight and passenger transport, and also between different means (road, air, rail and ship) and modes (basically cars, buses and taxis for urban transport, and train, truck, ship, airplane, bus and car for interurban transport). Chapter five presents greenhouse gas emissions for urban and interurban transport considering alternative scenarios, in particular improved public transport, better railroads and the introduction of natural gas. Finally, chapter six presents the main conclusions.