Publication Detail

Estimating Last-Mile Deliveries and Shopping Travel Emissions by 2050


Journal Article

National Center for Sustainable Transportation, Sustainable Freight Research Program

Suggested Citation:
Jaller, Miguel, Ivan R. Xiao, Sarah Dennis, Daniel Rivera-Royero, Anmol Pahwa (2023) Estimating Last-Mile Deliveries and Shopping Travel Emissions by 2050. Transportation Research Part D 123

This study investigates the potential ramifications of e-commerce on shopping behaviors, travel, and residential deliveries by the year 2050. A comprehensive modeling framework has been devised to predict alterations in shopping behavior, generate future synthesized populations for major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and estimate parameters associated with shopping travel and last-mile delivery alternatives. This framework relies on an integrated simulation that produces shopping and delivery travel, incorporating techniques such as Weighted Multinomial Logit and Monte Carlo simulation. The findings reveal that population growth and socio-demographic factors will differentially impact shopping behaviors across various MSAs. Furthermore, shopping travel and delivery patterns are subject to the influence of the spatial distribution of trips and transportation mode selection. The study underscores the significance of contemplating the implementation of clean energy fleets and effective transportation strategies to mitigate the negative externalities related to shopping activities.

Key words: e-commerce, shopping behavior, externalities, Monte Carlo simulation