Suggested Citation:
Tayarani, Hanif, Christopher Nitta, Gil Tal (2024)

To Charge or Not to Charge: Enhancing Electric Vehicle Charging Management with LSTM-based Prediction of Non-Critical Charging Sessions and Renewable Energy Integration

. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-24-09

Abstract:

To maximize the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potential of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), it is critical to develop EV dynamic charging management strategies. These strategies leverage the temporal variability in emissions associated with generated electricity to align EV charging with periods of low-carbon power generation. This study introduces a deep neural network tool to enable BEV drivers to make charging sessions align with the availability of cleaner energy resources. This study leverages a Long Short-Term Memory network to forecast individual BEV vehicle miles traveled (VMT) up to two days ahead, using a year-long dataset of driving and charging patterns from 66 California-based BEVs. Based on the predicted VMT, the model then estimates the vehicle's energy needs and the necessity of a charging session. This allows drivers to charge their vehicles strategically, prioritizing low-carbon electricity periods without risking incomplete journeys. This framework empowers drivers to actively contribute to cleaner electricity consumption with minimal disruption to their daily routines. The tool developed in this project outperforms benchmark models such as recurrent neural networks and autoregressive integrated moving averages, demonstrating its predictive capabilities. To enhance the reliability of predictions, confidence intervals are integrated into the model, ensuring that the model does not disrupt drivers' daily routine trips when skipping non-critical charging events. The potential benefits of the tool are demonstrated by applying it to real-world EV data, finding that if drivers follow the tool’s predictive suggestion, they can reduce overall GHG emissions by 41% without changing their driving patterns. This study also found that even charging in regions with higher carbon-intensity electricity than California can achieve Californian emission levels for EV charging in the short term through strategic management of non-critical charging events. This finding reveals new possibilities for further emissions reduction from EV charging, even before the full transition to a carbon-neutral grid.