Suggested Citation:
Rivera-Royero, Daniel, Daniel Orlando, Miguel Jaller (2024)

Developing and Applying Risk Performance Measures to Guide Resilience Investments in Transportation Systems

. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Dissertation UCD-ITS-RR-24-103

Abstract:

My dissertation focuses on designing a set of methods to evaluate the transportation system's performance at different geographical levels, with the objective of guiding resilience investments in transportation systems and enhancing the resilience of communities and transportation infrastructure against multiple hazards. It involves analyzing road network performance, which refers to the measurement of the strengths and weaknesses of the road network. My dissertation is composed of three main thrusts:

First, I examined the definitions of eleven road network performance concepts, including connectivity, redundancy, accessibility, four reliability concepts, robustness, flexibility, vulnerability, and resilience. This thrust provides a comprehensive classification scheme, illustrating these measures' relationships and practical applications.  The results of this thrust present promising avenues for future research.

Second, I expanded the literature review performed in thrust one by examining the impact of natural hazards on road network performance using risk measurements. I identified a gap in understanding the spatial patterns of these risks and their effects on network performance. To address this, I developed a method to assess RNP risk using directionality analysis at local, regional, and system-wide levels. The analysis develops a prioritization scheme based on eighteen natural hazards in many Californian cities. This prioritization scheme examines the severity of the hazards and their spatial distribution. This approach helps planners prioritize actions for cities facing significant natural hazards to enhance their resilience.

Finally, I developed a method to design evacuation plans for no- or short-notice wildfires using mathematical programming models and road network performance risk from my second thrust. Planners can identify key evacuation corridors for future maintenance and improvement. The analysis highlights the importance of alternative disaster management strategies to support evacuation efforts.
In conclusion, my thesis addresses a road network performance assessment gap by developing a new methodology that evaluates road network performance risk at three levels, incorporating directionality. It also demonstrates the application of this methodology to assist in decision-making at various geographical scales, from prioritizing cities at the state or regional level under different natural hazards to prioritizing corridors under no- or short-notice wildfire evacuation settings at the local level.