Suggested Citation:
Dhole, Anuj, Lewis Fulton, Roland Hwang, Craig Segall (2025)

Brief: Promoting Affordable Access to Zero Emission Trucks: A Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Based Approach to a Zero Emission Truck Incentive Program

. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Brief UCD-ITS-RR-25-102

Abstract:

Zero emission trucks are on the verge of rapid adoption in California due to strong regulatory and incentive support, but recent actions at the federal level threaten to stall progress. To achieve the next phase of widespread commercialization, California must take further action to ensure that ZETs are affordable, abundant, and accessible to all businesses. Continuation of purchase incentives is critical to the success of the ZET market, given the current high upfront purchase cost. ITS-Davis has analyzed the design of a zero-emission truck (ZET) incentive program that could help re-design or supplement the current Clean Truck and Bus Voucher Program (HVIP) and continue to provide certainty for fleet buyers to transition, given the recently withdrawn Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation for trucks and federal actions that could weaken or delay implementation of the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) regulation. Our analysis shows that a 10-year time-limited incentive program designed to achieve the ACT sales targets would cost about $4.34 billion1,2. With long-term funding certainty and transparency on rebate levels, manufacturers that envisage a large volume ZET production would have a strong incentive to competitively price their trucks. California has already invested over $6 billion in incentives for the ZET transition and with additional funding and policy support, could help ensure the state reaps the health and economic benefits of its past investments in the ZET transition.