Electric vehicles (EVs) require more than double the copper of conventional vehicles and are crucial for meeting net-zero targets for the transport sector. To understand the future of copper supply and the effects of the EV transition, we construct a mine-level optimization model to simulate supply dynamics under a variety of demand and copper recycling scenarios in a net-zero future.

We find large additions of new raw-ore-capacity will be necessary by 2050, ranging from 1958 Mt to 6591 Mt, depending on recycling rates and EV battery size. Our highest demand scenario shows insufficient capacity expansion to meet short-term demand, ore grade decline to 0.41%, and 373 new mine openings by 2050. The best scenario (high recycling rates in all sectors and smaller EV batteries) illustrates a pathway to a more sustainable EV transition: demand is met in all years, ore grade remains at 0.5%, and 87 new mines are required.

Key words:

energy transition minerals, copper supply chain, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, circular economy, mining