Suggested Citation:
Pan, Shuai, Yicheng Xu, Lewis Fulton, H. Oliver Gao (2026)

Future Changes in CO2 Emissions in the Shift to Electric Mobility in Countries With Varied Levels of Zero-Emission Vehicle Policies

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption has been viewed widely as a promising climate mitigation strategy, whereas the pace and scale of EV transition varies significantly in worldwide regions. This study examines recent policy dynamics in the global EV transition, employing the timing and magnitude of reductions in transport non-energy costs as key policy variables. Through systematic quantitative analysis using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), this study evaluates how different policy strengths shape EV transition pathways and their potential for energy savings and emission reductions. Results indicate that a uniform 20% reduction in non-energy costs for passenger electric cars worldwide from 2035 onward could increase EV penetration during the corresponding period from approximately 25–50% to around 70–85%. Such widespread adoption is expected to substantially lower future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the U.S., Europe, and China, while also helping curb rising emission trends in India, Southeast Asia, and Western Africa. Implementing the same 20% cost reduction in China as early as 2025 can effectively replicate its recent rapid growth in EV penetration. For the European Union, a phased cost-reduction approach (10% in 2030, rising to 30% from 2035) would likely enable it to meet the clean mobility target outlined in its 2025 Automotive Package, namely a 90% reduction in tailpipe emissions from 2035 onward. The use of battery EVs increases electricity consumption, but such impact remains modest. The popularity of fuel cell EVs can push up hydrogen demand, which makes expansion of green hydrogen production necessary. Results suggest the necessity of providing support like technological assistance and financial investment from leading automotive markets (e.g., the U.S., Europe, and China) to developing countries, to ensure a global, inclusive, and equitable EV transition.