Publication Detail

Future Battery Recycling in North America: Capacity Expansion Under Shifting Demand and Circularity Strategies

UCD-ITS-RP-26-43

Journal Article

Global South Center for Clean Transportation

Suggested Citation:
Busch, Pablo, Jessica Dunn, Francisco Parés Olguín, Aditya Ramji, Alissa Kendall (2026)

Future Battery Recycling in North America: Capacity Expansion Under Shifting Demand and Circularity Strategies

. Resources, Conservation, and Recycling 235 (109118)

Demand for lithium-ion batteries is growing in North America, driven by decarbonization actions. This will result in rising manufacturing scrap and retired batteries as recycling feedstock. We use a dynamic material flow analysis to forecast lithium-ion battery recycling feedstock in North America until 2050. Existing and planned battery recycling infrastructure for battery pre-processing and refining has overcapacity until 2030, but will need to continue expanding to handle the increasing volume of recycling feedstock. Required recycling capacity expansion could range from 20% (in a 0% production scrap and long battery lifetime scenario) to 800% (in a 20% production scrap, short battery lifetime, all battery production in North America, and large battery size scenario) for pre-processing, and up to 500% for refining in 2035 (short lifetime and large batteries). Battery recycling capacity has a few years to expand and meet the increasing retired battery feedstock, though the quantity and timing of the feedstock are uncertain.

Key words:
Lithium-ion batteries, Electric vehicles, Waste generation, Circular economy, Recycling, North America