Abstract:Public agencies and utilities in California have made significant investments in research projects to develop models that forecast vehicle demand under the expectation that new vehicle technologies will be introduced. While these models are intended for public planning purposes, with only minor modifications they can provide valuable marketing information for automobile manufacturers. We modify a recently developed microsimulation forecasting system to explore the structure of the vehicle market, and the prospects for successful introduction of compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric vehicles. For simulated new vehicle purchases, we find that significant market structure exists in the following two areas: (1) alternative-fuel vehicles are more likely to be purchased in certain body types given availability constraints, and (2) certain demographic segments of the population are more likely to be "green" consumers and purchase alternative-fuel vehicles. Specifically, households are found to purchase higher shares of CNG vans and small electric cars (mini, subcompact, and compact) than would be predicted under independence between body type and fuel type. Families with children under the age of 16 (and two or more adults) and retired single adults are more likely to purchase alternative-fuel vehicles than would be predicted if demographic segmentation and fuel type were independent. "Green" families with children differentially prefer CNG vehicles, and retired single adults differentially prefer electric vehicles.