Dock-less e-bike-share use is likely to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and related greenhouse emissions – if it substitutes for car use. If the major mode shift comes from public transit, owned bike, or walking, the benefits will be more limited. The goal of this paper is to identify the factors influencing mode substitution, defined here as the mode that is replaced when bike-share is used. The analysis shows that the dominant mode substitution for trips of less than 1 mile for most trip purposes is walking. Long trips and non-commute trips that start at non-commercial locations are likely to represent car substitution and some groups, such as women, non-membership holders and those who have a private car, are more likely to report car substitution for any trip purpose. These results provide guidance for designing bike-share operations and policies to enhance car substitution.

Key words: Dock-less e-bike-share, Mode Substitution, Bayesian Multinomial Logistic Regression. Sacramento