Abstract:Accurately predicting the spatial distribution and charging demand of future electric vehicles is vital to directing investment in charging infrastructure and planning policy interventions. To date, this expansion has been heavily concentrated in wealthy cities and suburbs, among commuters, and among households able to charge their vehicles at home. The expansion of EV ownership will include both changes in where the vehicles are owned as well as how they are used and charged. This paper demonstrates methods to predict where the expansion of electric vehicle ownership is likeliest to occur under current market characteristics and allow for testing of scenarios of future characteristics. These methods are demonstrated with an analysis of California, using a scenario of 4 million battery electric vehicles and 1 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, to match the state’s goal of 5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030. These projections are combined with a model for charging behavior to generate scenarios of demand for charging away from home under various fleet characteristics and identify areas of the state with the greatest need for infrastructure investment.

Key Points:

• The expansion of EV ownership in California will include both changes in where the vehicles are owned as well as how they are used and charged. EV ownership will expand into rural areas as well as household types that are currently much less likely to own EVs.
• The spatial distribution, demographic characteristics, and commute patterns of future EV owners depend substantially on the body styles of EVs sold. If EV production continues to emphasize small sedans, EVs will remain much more popular in urban / suburban commute uses. Increasing availability of electric trucks and larger SUVs may increase the adoption for other uses
• Demand for workplace charging is highly responsive to cost; if commute destinations provide charging for free, they will need to provide many more chargers.