Abstract:Many researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders view zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) as playing an important role in deep decarbonization of the transport sector. Here, we bring attention to one policy that can effectively induce ZEV sales in the long term: a ZEV sales mandate. Although three decades have passed since the first mandate was implemented in California, there is surprisingly little research regarding its policy impacts. From a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation perspective, we argue that ZEV mandates should be framed and analyzed as complex policy–with intended impacts on industry, consumers, and institutions over the long term. We present an interdisciplinary framework to address this complexity, summarizing the limited evidence to date on policy effectiveness, efficiency, public acceptability, and transformative potential. We conclude with a critical research agenda to improve understanding of the role of a mandate in an effective policy mix.

Key words: electric vehicle, zero-emission vehicles, climate policy, policy evaluation, technology adoption, regulation