Abstract:Problem, research strategy, and findings: Local governments across the United States have for decades relied on the autocentric level of service (LOS) metric to analyze and impose exactions for the transportation impacts of land use developments. In California, LOS has dominated transportation impact analysis under the state’s project-level environmental review law. In that role, LOS has exacerbated the state’s notoriously tortuous development approval processes, particularly in urban areas. But LOS is on its way out. The state recently replaced LOS with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as the primary measure—and basis for mitigation—of transportation impacts under the California Environmental Quality Act. Local governments must make the switch by July 1, 2020. We use a historical counterfactual approach to assess how replacing LOS with VMT could have affected the approval process for 153 land development projects over 16 years in the city of Los Angeles. We find that most projects could have benefited from at least some environmental review streamlining under the VMT-based framework recommended by the state, including more than 75% of residential-containing projects

Takeaway for practice: Our results suggest that swapping LOS for VMT could reduce the environmental review burden for development in low-VMT urban areas and provide at least some of the approval process streamlining necessary to increase housing production in California. Similar impacts from an LOS-to-VMT switch could also potentially accrue outside of California under the right conditions, but more research is needed.