Suggested Citation:
Kothawala, Alimurtaza, Maha Ahmad, Rosa Dominguez-Faus, Lewis Fulton, Giovanni Circella (2023)

Future of Passenger Mobility in the United States: Scenarios for 2030

Transportation is changing rapidly. New mobility options are on the rise, and the way we access transportation modes, their availability, and the energy that fuels them are changing. This change will likely amplify in the next ten years as climate change accelerates the need to decarbonize the transportation industry. When planning future investments, descriptive scenarios provide a way to explore alternatives. In this study, we fuse qualitative and quantitative methods in a two-step process to create scenarios for US passenger transportation in 2030 to aid this planning process. We consulted leading experts from the transportation and energy sectors through an online survey and a follow-up online workshop and developed future projections for eighteen key indicators that can impact the future of transportation. Using these insights, we develop three distinct scenarios that capture a wide gamut of future possibilities. The first scenario, Hop & Drive, points to a dismal picture – a slower economy, greater suburban growth, and higher driving levels. The second scenario, Mapped by Directives, paints a future shaped by ambitious policies at the local and federal level accelerating electrification, reviving US mass transit, and lowering driving levels. The last scenario, Tech Dazzles, imagines what rapid technology improvements and adoption can lead to – an increasingly automated world, with a Mobility-as-a-Service paradigm starting to realize. For each scenario, we estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), carbon emissions, and electrification levels using a tool based on International Energy Agency’s mobility model to discuss the implications associated with each transportation future.