Suggested Citation:
Yang, Hong, Marshall Miller, Lewis Fulton, Aravind Kailas (2025)

Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Truck Charging Assessment to 2035 in California: Projections and Practical Challenges

. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Journal Article UCD-ITS-RP-25-72

Abstract:

As of mid-2025, California maintains a target (and legal agreement with truck OEMs) to reach 100% zero-emission M/HD truck sales by 2036. The US federal government has relaxed its targets but maintains truck fuel economy standards, incentivizing EV uptake. To meet these ambitions, ZEVs require adequate charging infrastructure rollout at scale. This paper reviews studies that estimate the M/HD charging and investment needs in California and the US. This paper then develops a new matrix that entails charging needs by charging power for each truck type from Class 2b to Class 8, the charger-to-vehicle ratio for each truck type, and the charger investment costs. This paper projects that California may require about 151 to 156 thousand chargers on the road by 2030, and increase to 434 to 460 thousand chargers on the road by 2035. The associated charging infrastructure investment—including both new charger installation and charger replacement—can reach approximately $7.1 to $7.4 billion by 2030, and $16.4 to $17.8 billion by 2035. Thus, achieving the number of chargers and managing these investments needs will likely be challenging.