Suggested Citation:
Zhao, Jingyuan, Rui Zhou, Andrew Burke, Lewis Fulton (2026)

Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure Deployment to Support California's Advanced Clean Fleets Regulation

The California Air Resources Board's Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulation requires covered fleets to transition to zero-emission vehicles by 2042. This study develops the Integrating Market Penetration and Cost Technologies (IMPACT) framework to jointly model vehicle cost, technology adoption, and hydrogen-refueling infrastructure for California's medium- and heavy-duty fleet through 2050. In a hydrogen-forward scenario, fuel-cell electric trucks (FCETs) become a material pathway when fuel-cell system costs, including a 35% markup, fall below $100/kW and retail hydrogen prices reach $6/kg. Under the hydrogen-forward scenario, the simulated FCET stock reaches approximately 799,000 vehicles by 2050, with FCETs accounting for55–60% of new medium- and heavy-duty truck sales. This fleet requires 1040 high-throughput stations, 5900 metric tons of hydrogen per day, and $9.9 billion in cumulative station capital investment ($9.5 million per two-dispenser station). These results illustrate the infrastructure scale and cost conditions associated with substantial FCET deployment in the scenarios examined.