Abstract:Currently, urban models do not represent neighborhood succession adequately. We review past research on this topic and then present our analysis of Sacramento County, California. We stratified the neighborhoods into three groups based on the percentage of blacks and examined the differences of group means for several measures of neighborhood quality. We found that average house value, rent, household income, educational status, and percent households above poverty level are all negatively associated with percentage of blacks, and that the impacts of blacks as a racial factor seemed to increase over time with respect to the enlarged differences in socioeconomic status between groups. In a multi-ethnic environment, the neighborhoods were evolving toward a racial composition that is tolerable to whites and blacks. The classic neighborhood succession from majority white to majority black did not occur in Sacramento County. We suggest that neighborhood change may be able to be modeled, using available census data, and should be taken into account in urban models.