Suggested Citation:
Burke, Andrew, Jingyuan Zhao, Marshall Miller, Lewis Fulton (2023) Vehicle Choice Modeling for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles in California. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-23-62

Transportation is widely recognized as one of the largest contributors to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. To support the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), California has long been investing in a wide range of initiatives, including incentives for ZEV purchases, expanding battery charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and promoting public awareness of the benefits of ZEVs. California has enacted legislation stipulating that the sale of fossil fuel engine powered vehicles will be prohibited post-2035 (for LDVs) and 2036 (for MD/HDVs). Consequently, all vehicles available for sale thereafter must qualify as ZEVs. In this report, the research presents the decision factors used by purchasers of cars and trucks and how these factors would affect purchases of ZEVs. The study uses representations of household consumer and fleet preferences and includes a probability analysis approach to determine market shares for ZEVs for 2020-2040. The new approach is applied to light-duty vehicles and medium-/heavy-duty trucks. Market share results are presented for a number of scenarios for different vehicle and infrastructure development strategies. The results are compared with those using other approaches for analysis and with California Air Resources Board (CARB) targets for ZEV market development. Our findings indicate that battery electric and fuel cell vehicles will likely gain market share over time, but that a diverse range of measures and policies must be implemented to encourage consumers to adopt ZEVs as rapidly and completely (by 2035) as the state targets.