Suggested Citation:
Zhao, Jingyuan, Andrew Burke, Marshall Miller, Lewis Fulton (2024)

Vehicle Choice Modeling for Emerging Zero-Emission Medium- And Heavy-Duty Vehicle Markets in California

Medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are major contributors to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. California leads in transitioning towards zero-emission MHDVs through a comprehensive approach that includes financial incentive s for zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) purchases, improved infrastructure for battery charging and hydrogen refueling, and extensive public awareness campaigns. The state has enacted Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations, requiring all MHDVs—including box trucks, vans, work trucks, and tractors—to adopt ZEVs between 2035 and 2042. Consequently, thorough analysis and forecasting of market penetration for various MHDVs in the next decade are essential. This study introduces a purchase probability analysis-based dynamic discrete choice (PPADDC) model specifically designed for vehicle choice modeling in the MHDV sector. The model assesses the probabilities linked to sixteen decision factors that influence truck adoption from 2024 to 2040. Utilizing this model, we project market share and penetration under eight scenarios, reflecting our comprehensive understanding of the California market through observational, empirical, and mathematical perspectives. These scenarios differ in terms of vehicle cost, procurement incentives, and infrastructure development strategies. Our findings provide a strategic framework for achieving the ambitious ZEV targets set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), illustrating that a combination of technological advancements, policy initiatives, and market incentives can significantly enhance ZEV adoption in the MHDV sector. This study not only confirms the practicality of California ZEV goals but also offers valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers working towards a more sustainable transportation future.